WLC

Hydrological Modelling

Aims

to predict the spatial and temporal variations in water flow regime and salinity of the Jordan River system at each of the study dates in light of the climatic, environmental and land use factor

Methods

Hydrological, meteorological, salinity and land use data from the Jordan River Basin will be collated and used to develop a hydrochemical model of the Jordan system that can simulate flow regime and salinity levels. Several hydrological modelling approaches are available including process based models such as INCA and stochastic time series approaches. The most likely to be used is INCA, a catchment rainfall-runoff and chemical mass balance model which can be used to investigate the impacts of land use change and climatic change. Simulations will be developed for the current flow and water quality and calibrated and tested with hydrological salinity data from the Jordan River system. Simulations will then be constructed for the specified study periods and for past and future climatic and land use conditions in the valley. The GCM climate models will provide the driving variables for the INCA hydrological and salinity model.

People

Professor Paul Whitehead	P.G.Whitehead@reading.ac.uk
Dr Nicola Flynn	N.J.Flynn@reading.ac.uk
Dr Andrew Wade	A.J.Wade@reading.ac.uk

Publications

Scientific papers

Whitehead, P.G., S.J. Smith, A.J. Wade, S.J.Mithen, B.L.Finlayson, and B.Sellwood Modelling of Hydrology and Population levels at Bronze Age Jawa: A Monte-Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty (submitted to Journal of Archaeological Science and published in preliminary form as a WLC working paper)