WLC

Climate Modelling

Aims

to predict annual and seasonal changes in climate for the MENA region
to evaluate the simulations using locally derived climate proxy, archaeological and geographical data

Methods

The NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling will use the Hadley Centre’s state-of-the-art HadGEM1 model at high resolution (100km) for decades at the specified periods in the past and present. The global model will provide the boundary conditions for nested regional models of the MENA region and the Jordan Valley. Projections for the future will be based on the Hadley Centre scenario runs and those being performed at CGAM through other projects as part of the UK’s contribution to the next Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Evaluation of the present day climate model rainfall estimates for semi-arid areas of the MENA region would be carried out by direct comparison of modelled rainfall against archived raingauge and satellite-based rainfall estimates using appropriate statistical techniques and by comparing modelled and observed rainfall as inputs to hydrological and crop growth models. These models have already been developed as part of other projects and will be important in assessing the ability of the climate model to simulate realistic hydrological and agricultural conditions.

People

Professor Bruce Sellwood	b.w.sellwood@reading.ac.uk
Professor Brian Hoskins	b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk
Professor Julia Slingo	J.M.Slingo@reading.ac.uk
Dr David Grimes	D.I.F.Grmes@reading.ac.uk
Dr Emily Black	emily@met.reading.ac.uk
Dr Charlie Williams	C.J.R.Williams@reading.ac.uk
David Brayshaw	d.j.brayshaw@reading.ac.uk

Publications

Scientific papers

Black, E. (2006) The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle East Rainfall Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change and the Middle East Past, Present and Future pages 39-45

Diro, G.T., D.I.F. Grimes, E.Black and A. O'Neill Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia submitted to International Journal of Climatology

Newsletter articles

Black, E. (2006) Present day climate variability in the Middle East: some results from the Water, Life and Civilisation climate modelling sub-project CBRL Newsletter pages 71-72

Black, E. (2006) Climate variability in the Middle East Water, Life and Civilisation Newsletter pages 3-4 (Download)

Presentations

Second annual meeting (Jan 2007) presentation (Download powerpoint)

June 2006 progress meeting presentation (Download powerpoint)

First annual meeting (Download powerpoint)

8th June WLC science meeting progress report (Download powerpoint)

Water and Civilisation - The Future in a Changing Climate (Download powerpoint)

Project documents

Year 2 report (Download)

Year 1 report (Download)

Implementation plan (Download pdf)